empty glass grain marketing advice

So there you have it, your $8+ corn… feel better now.

No point in introductions, if you are reading this, you follow me on twitter, no need for explanation of policy. (dumbshit stuff like trade at your own risk, my advice sucks – ignore at all costs – unless I’m right) Nothing like drinking and getting a little adventurous with grain marketing advice. To understand what it’s really like producing and marketing grain, lets take a page from that classic game show “lets make a deal”…

Now your a producer that raises 1k acres of corn and expect a yield of 200bu/ac. (For those of you who attended college in Norman, Manhattan, College Station, or any town other than Stillwater. – your projected crop would be 200k, with k meaning 1000 bushels) Now you are picked from the crowd because you have the guts to dress up as a modern day farmer, all JD ballcap and bullshit. You’re up on stage and the infamous three door game appears…. Dude shows up and says behind door number one I’ve got a guarantee of $5/bu for your entire crop, and asks if you’ll take it…. Now keep in mind it only costs like $4/bu to produce said corn, so door #1 looks like a windfall profit of (strap in you A&M mathlete defectors from the big 12 the greatest conference to ever exist and you and MU and CU can suck it), $200k. But no, you have learned from years of watching this dog and pony show, that only assholes jump at door #1, and your not that guy today. On to door #2…. and out rolls $6/bu corn… now is where the hard part comes in. Everyone knows that if you take the prize, door #3 kicks ass, but if you defer to door #3, some dickhead stagehand (aka “market”) will switch shit around so that you end up with some broken/scratched DVD of #honeybooboo highlights. So in all your infinite wisdom, you pick door #2 and sit back and revel in your glory of being a badass at your job.

Now the fun begins… some asshat host now has determined that we MUST now show what is behind door #3, guess what, It’s $8/bu corn!!!! Everyone now has the glory of announcing how if they were chosen to run onstage, they would have waited for door #3, it’s just that simple.  Well it isn’t that simple, let me dissect this for you…. The reason you weren’t chosen is because you picked up some “boy-wonder” costume from the dollar general on your way to the show and you are sitting next to your high-school sweetheart who won Ms. Congeniality (not the pretty girl, but always nice). So while your sitting there with your dumbshit “R” on your chest, be quiet and wish you had the guts to go steal a pioneer hat… thus being mistaken for a farmer, and consequently getting picked to go onstage. (Don’t get a channel hat, those are for posers)

Now keep in mind, nothing wrong with the door #2, but everyone wants what they could have had. Truth be told, nobody wants to be that guy who picks.  Most are content to sit on the sidelines and cheer for the winners and boo the losers… (kinda like OSU-OU football last year, FACE sooners)

In summary, when USDA smashes corn production in the morning, remember that guy who picked door #2, and remember, don’t be the asshole who cheers when door #3 now shows $9/bu… we get it, I should have waited…

and for all you rocket scientists who think this analogy applies to me, congrats genius, you should win a fucking Nobel prize in being a dickhead for pointing out the obvious

Jerod

p.s. if your beer has a twist off cap, it’s not a real beer, stop being an asshole and buy something that requires you to pop the top….

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